Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 0.807861 0.943460 1.094571 1.275432 1.486035 1.723567 2.011893
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 0.578197 0.754271 0.972789 1.263868 1.641581 2.115435 2.755725
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 0.456050 0.643854 0.895532 1.257384 1.764610 2.451025 3.452137
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.381185 0.573871 0.848709 1.269152 1.896613 2.799551 4.200607
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.312494 0.497368 0.775685 1.224931 1.932700 3.006737 4.764927
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.288626 0.482705 0.789255 1.308290 2.166376 3.531441 5.874962
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.245432 0.429530 0.733393 1.270900 2.199609 3.742221 6.508457
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.209414 0.382242 0.679365 1.226705 2.211835 3.914874 7.094415
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.180782 0.343233 0.633367 1.188498 2.226557 4.089385 7.700802
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.165219 0.325512 0.622230 1.210565 2.350901 4.470288 8.727061
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.158954 0.324319 0.640960 1.290314 2.592299 5.093563 10.287991
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.148241 0.312752 0.638114 1.327190 2.754291 5.583987 11.651029
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.134910 0.294439 0.620452 1.333799 2.860399 5.985794 12.906765
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.121421 0.273925 0.595721 1.322649 2.928937 6.321843 14.075939
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.110041 0.256298 0.574565 1.315919 3.005339 6.682677 15.345623
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.101527 0.243846 0.562861 1.328236 3.124877 7.150277 16.913974
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.089796 0.222208 0.527697 1.281965 3.104284 7.303460 17.781502
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.088223 0.224642 0.548164 1.369188 3.408158 8.234274 20.607288
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.078948 0.206751 0.518162 1.330065 3.401684 8.435996 21.690827
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.070350 0.189343 0.487032 1.283821 3.371127 8.575271 22.636643
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.063056 0.174294 0.459817 1.243843 3.351035 8.737446 23.662607
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.059570 0.168955 0.456782 1.266933 3.498981 9.343793 25.938420
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.059030 0.171656 0.475219 1.350379 3.820076 10.439854 29.682996